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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Feb 19

As Another Significant Short Wave Impulse Shifts Eastward Across The Northeast Pacific...Just Ahead Of The Crest Of A Broad... Building
Upper Ridge...An Upper Trough...Amplifying Near The Pacific Coast At
12z Tuesday...Is Forecast To Turn Inland Across California.

The Latter Feature Appears Likely To Reach The Great Basin And Southern Plateau By 12z Wednesday...And May Gradually Begin To Come In Phase With A Significant Impulse Emerging From The Subtropical Eastern Pacific.

As This Occurs...And Mid-Level Heights Begin To Rise Across The Western Gulf States...A Low/Mid- Level Cyclone Embedded Within A Deamplifying Upper Trough Is Forecast To Shift From The Great Lakes Through The Northeast.

Meanwhile...An Associated Cold Front Should Stall Across The Florida Peninsula/Northern Gulf Of Mexico And Deep South Texas... While Advancing East Of Much Of The Remainder Of The Atlantic Seaboard.

To The South Of The Front...The Boundary Layer Over The Gulf Of Mexico Will Continue To Gradually Recover From Recent Cooling/ Drying...And A Southerly Return Flow May Begin To Develop Off The Western Gulf Of Mexico...Contributing To Moistening Above The Surface Front Across Much Of Texas Into The Red River Valley.

This May Become Supportive Of Scattered Thunderstorm Activity Late Tuesday And Tuesday Night...But Destabilization Above The Stable Surface Layer Is Not Currently Expected To Become Sufficient For An Appreciable Risk For Large Hail.


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