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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Feb 12

Gulf Coast...

Extent Of Strong/Severe Tstms During The Day3 Period Will Be
Predicated On Nwd Extent Of Tropical Boundary Layer Airmass And The Intensity Of Sfc Low That Should Evolve Along Old Stationary
Boundary.

00z Nam Is An Outlier In Regards To Its Nwd Track/Placement And Intensity Of Sfc Low With A Position Over Nwrn Al At 13/06z. Nam Allows Warm Front To Lift Well Interior With A Surge Of Modified Gom Air Into The Ern Tn Valley By The End Of The Period. However...Both The Gfs And Ecmwf Are Considerably Farther South And Weaker With The Sfc Cyclone Due In Part To The Old Frontal Zone Stubbornly Holding Near The Coast For Much Of The Period.

Given The Uncertainty Of Frontal Position And More Buoyant Airmass
Will Introduce 5 Percent Severe Probs Just Inland Along The Gulf
Coast. A Few Organized Severe Thunderstorms May Ultimately Evolve Within Warm Advection Along Nrn Fringe Of Stronger Instability Which Could Produce Damaging Winds Or Perhaps Even A Tornado. If Higher Quality Airmass Spreads Inland Then Severe Probs Will Be Adjusted To Account For The Potential For More Widespread Robust Convection.


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