May 22, 2013
Synopsis...
As An Upper Trough Over Central Noam At The Start Of The Period
Continues Ewd -- Reaching Ern Canada And The Ern U.S. By The End Of The Period...Fast/Quasi-Zonal Wly Flow Will Become Re-Established Over The W With Time.
As The Main Upper Trough Continues Ewd...The Accompanying Surface Cold Front Is Forecast To Move Quickly Ewd Across The Ne...But More Slowly Sewd Across The S Central Conus.
With A Fairly Moist Low-Level Airmass In Place Across The Wrn And
Central Gulf Coast Region And Nwd Across The Lower Ms Valley... Modest Instability Within The Pre-Frontal Warm Sector Should Promote Continued Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Which Should Be Ongoing From The Arklatex To The Tn Valley At The Start Of The Period.
However...Flow Aloft Is Forecast To Remain Marginal...With Lower And Middle Tropospheric Winds Remaining Generally Aob 30 Kt. Therefore -- Though Small Hail And Locally Gusty Winds May Be Possible...Any Severe Threat Appears Well Below The Threshold Which Would Drive Introduction Of Even Low Severe Probability Attm.
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