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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Aug 27

Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes...

Model Guidance Is In General Agreement Regarding The Dominant Upper High That Has Settled Into The Mid Section Of The U.S.

Differences Arise Among The Nam/Gfs/Ecmwf Regarding The Ridge-Topping Short-Wave Trough Late Monday And Its Ultimate Movement Downstream.

00z Nam Allows For A Bit More Digging Across The Great Lakes Than Either The Gfs/Ecmwf Which Results In Sfc Front Sagging Swd Across Mn/Wi/Lower Mi During The Period. Other Short-Range Guidance Is Much Slower With This Swd Push Due To Short-Wave Position.

Late Day2 Convection And Its Strength/Organization Will Certainly
Influence Swd Push Of Synoptic Front Across The Great Lakes.

Given The Uncertainty Of This Boundary Have Opted To Introduce 5 Percent Severe Probs To Account For Variances In Frontal Position And Attendant Convective Threat. Strong Heating Will Be Instrumental In Tstm Development As Sfc Temperatures Soar Well Into The 90s Where Low Level Flow Veers Just Ahead Of The Front. Storms That Develop Near This Boundary Will Do So Within Modest Deep Layer Shear And Adequate Instability Environment For At Least Isolated Damaging Winds And Perhaps Some Hail.


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