Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Aug 20

Very Little Change In The Upper Air Pattern Will Occur Going Into The D3 Forecast Period.

Progressive Wly Flow Regime Will Reside Over Far Nrn Portions Of The Conus Into Canada...While A Weak Trough Remains Situated Over The Mid Ms Valley...And A Closed Low Lingers Over The Cntrl Ca Coast. At The Surface...A Lee Trough Will Be Positioned Over The Nrn Plains...With Low-Level Slys Present Across The Dakotas And Mn. As An Upper-Level Shortwave Trough Moves Across The Canadian Prairie Provinces During The Late Afternoon And Overnight... Associated Cold Front Is Forecast To Move Sewd Across The Dakotas And Nrn Mn.

Dakotas Into Nrn Mn...

Surface Trough Will Reside Over The Dakotas During The Afternoon ...With Sly Winds Ahead Of This Feature Establishing Dewpoints In The 40s/50s Over The Wrn Dakotas...To The Upper 60s Over Mn. Plume Of Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Spreading Across The Area Combined With Strong Surface Heating Will Aid In Mlcape Values From 1000 J/Kg Where Moisture Is More Marginal In Sd/Nd...To 3000
J/Kg Where Moisture Values Are Higher In Mn. As An Upper-Level
Shortwave Trough Enters The Canadian Prairie Provinces And Nrn High Plains During The Late Afternoon And Evening...Glancing Influence Of Large-Scale Ascent May Aid In Isolated Thunderstorm Development Invof The Surface Trough. Additional Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Into The Night As A Cold Front Advances Sewd Into The Dakotas And Nrn Mn. Though Deep-Layer Shear Will Be Somewhat Weak /Aob 30 Kt/...Steep Lapse Rates And Moderate To Strong Buoyancy Will Support A Threat For Large Hail And Damaging Winds.

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