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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Aug 13

An Amplified Large Scale Pattern Will Prevail Into Tuesday Over The
Conus Via An Amplifying Upper Trough Over Eastern Canada And The
Northeast States/New England...While Upper Ridging Exists Over The
Rockies/Adjacent High Plains.

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States And New England...

Some Guidance Variability Exists At The Day 3 Juncture Regarding The Exact Evolution Of The Upper Trough/Associated Cold Front And The Timing Thereof. But In General...The Most Probable Scenario Will Be Amplification Of The Upstream/Passing Upper Trough Especially
Tuesday Afternoon/Night.

The Timing Of The Cold Front/Possible Mid-Atlantic Pre-Frontal Trough And The Extent Of The Preceding Warm/Moist Sector Is Uncertain...Especially Across Coastal New England...Aside From The General Potential For Front-Preceding Early Day Showers/Tstms And Associated Cloud Cover.

Where Somewhat Stronger Heating Does Occur Into Tuesday Afternoon...Which Currently Appears Most Probable Across Portions Of The Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...Surface Based Tstms Should Increase/Intensify Ahead Of The Front And/Or Near A Pre-Frontal Trough. Under The Influence Of Moderately Strong Cyclonic Upper Flow...Vertical Shear Will Be Sufficient For Sustained Multicells/Line Segments Capable Of Wind Damage And Some Hail.

Mid-South/Lower Ms Valley/Tn Valley...

Current Thinking Is That Scattered Showers/Tstms Will Be Ongoing
Across Portions Of The Region Tuesday Morning...Within A Corridor
From Ok To The Ozarks/Lower Ms Valley. A Synoptic Frontal Boundary
Will Otherwise Continue To Effectively Settle Southward Across The
Region During The Period...With The Presence Of This Boundary/ Potential Convectively-Induced Mesoscale Features Contributing To Subsequent Surface Based Development Into Tuesday Afternoon Across Portions Of The Region. Where Sufficient Heating/ Destabilization Does Occur...Sporadic Bouts Of Downbursts/ Wind Damage Will Be Possible.

Northern/Central High Plains And Northern Rockies...

With Relatively Limited Fluctuation To The Overall Large Scale
Pattern From Monday Into Tuesday...Tstms Should Again Diurnally
Develop/Intensify Within A Modestly Moist/Unstable Corridor Across
The High Plains...With Other Storm Development/Intensification Over
The Northern Rockies To The East-Central Mt High Plains.

In General...Modest Vertical Shear/Low-Level Moisture Will Tend To
Limit The Overall Magnitude Of The Severe Risk Across These
Regions...Although Sporadic Severe Hail/Wind Will Be Possible
Especially Tuesday Afternoon/Early Evening.


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