Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Apr 9

Highly Amplified Upper-Level Trough Over The West Should Evolve Into Two Distinct Shortwave Impulses...One Moving Newd Towards The Nrn/Cntrl Plains And The Other Remaining In The Base Of The Trough Over Nwrn Mexico. Mid-Level Swlys Will Increase Across The Warm/Moist Sector In Response To The Lead Impulse.

At The Surface...Cyclone In The Lee Of The Srn Rockies Should Develop Newd And Reach The Lower Mo Valley By Tue Night. The Srn Plains Dryline Will Be Progressively Overtaken By A Cold Front Which Should Reach Cntrl Tx By Early Wed.

Lower Mo Valley To The Srn Plains...

A Broad Corridor Of Organized Severe Potential With All Hazard Types
Is Anticipated Tue Afternoon Into Wed Morning. An Upgrade To
Moderate Risk Will Continue To Be Considered In Later Outlooks.

Low Confidence Exists In The Synoptic Pattern Given Relatively Large
Spread In Guidance With The Handling Of The Lead Shortwave Impulse Ejecting From The Wrn Conus Trough. Ncep Guidance Remains Faster Than The Ecmwf/Ukmet With The Progression Of The Impulse Which Affects Positioning Of The Dryline/Cold Front...And More Bullish With The Amplitude Of Kinematics Over The Warm/Moist Sector. This Breeds Substantial Uncertainty Over Where To Place Higher Severe Probabilities Or Even Whether They Are Needed Beyond An Enhanced Slight Risk.

Regardless Of The Pattern Differences...Given Strengthening Return
Flow In The Wrn Gulf...A Moderately Unstable Air Mass Will Become
More Widespread In The S-Cntrl Conus.

With Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates And Forcing For Ascent Increasing Through The Period...Supercells And Organized Clusters Should Commence Tue Afternoon In Parts Of Ks And Develop S/Ewd Into The Srn Plains And Towards The Mid-Ms Valley During The Evening/Overnight.

Large Hail /Some Significant/ And Tornadoes Will Likely Be The Primary Hazards. The Threat For Damaging Winds Should Increase During The Latter Half Of The Period As Lower-Level Flow Strengthens And Convective Mode Becomes More Cluster/Linear.


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