Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Apr 30

Nrn Stream Upper Trough Will Continue To Amplify Across The Ncntrl
U.S. Through Tuesday As A Weaker Srn Stream Mid/Upper Low Meanders Near The Gulf Coast With Weaker Disturbances Spreading Downstream Across Fl.

The Prominent Trough Emerging Over The Nrn/Cntrl Plains Will Be Accompanied By A Sharp Cold Front That Will Spread East And
Southeast Across The Upper Ms Valley And Nrn Great Lakes Through
Tuesday Night While Making Slightly Slower Progress Over The
Mid/Lower Mo River Valley And Central Plains. The Wrn Portion Of The
Cold Front Will Surge Swd Across High Plains Of Ern Co And Wrn Ks
And Likely Reach The Nrn Tx Pnhdl By Early Wednesday.

Nrn Ks/Sern Neb Across Ia To Srn Wi...

Latest Guidance Has Trended A Bit Slower With The Frontal Advance
Into Portions Of The Midwest During Tuesday With The Ecmwf Being
Slowest To Develop Any Convective Precipitation Along/Near The Front Until Late Tuesday Night.

While Moderately Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates Are Anticipated Along And Ahead Of The Cold Front...Uncertainties Remain High Regarding Low Level Moisture Return And Surface-Based Cape In The Pre-Frontal Warm Sector/Conveyor Belt.

Furthermore...The Larger Scale Trough Appears To Maintain A Positive Tilt Through The Period With Stronger Height Falls Remaining West And Generally Weaker Large Scale Ascent
Coincident With Greater Potential Instability.

Model Guidance Appears To Suggest That Inhibition Will Tend To Limit Convective Development To Immediately On Or Even Well Behind The Front With Post-Frontal Storms Increasingly Likely Later In The Period As Llj Aids Mass Transport And Lift Across The Boundary.

This Evolution Would Support An Increasing Severe Hail Threat With Time From Storms Undercut By Post-Frontal Surface-Based Stable Air. If Greater Confidence Is Gained In Surface-Based Convective
Development...Timing...And Instability In The Warm Sector...Severe
Probabilities Will Likely Be Increased In Subsequent Outlooks.


Lift Associated With Weak Short Wave Disturbances Will Combine With Abundant Moisture And Increase In Diurnal Instability To Contribute To Numerous Storms Across Fl. Band Of Modest Mid Level Wly Flow On The Order Of 30-40kt May Provide Sufficient Vertical Shear For A Few Longer-Lived/Organized Storms With The Potential For Hail/Wind.

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