Large Scale Trough Amplification/Increasingly Prevalent Cyclonic
Upper Flow Will Exist Over A Large Part Of The North-Central Conus
On Tuesday. A Surface Cold Front Will Spread Eastward Over The
Middle Ms Valley/Midwest...While Moving More Southeastward Across
The Mid-South/Arklatex And The Majority Of Tx.
Ozarks/Mid-South/Middle Ms Valley...
Low-Level Moisture...Albeit Modified/Modest In Nature...Will Steadily Spread Northeastward Toward The Ozarks/Mid-South And Middle/ Lower Ms Valley Ahead Of An East-Southeastward Moving Cold Front.
Given Current/Expected Trajectories...It Does Not Seem Likely That Consequential Moistening/Destabilization Will Generally Coincide With The Strongest Forcing/Vertical Shear Over The Middle Ms Valley /Midwest.
Nonetheless...It Is Possible That Storms May Increase During The
Late Afternoon...Or More So...Into Tuesday Evening/Night In Vicinity
Of The Advancing Front. It Is Not Entirely Clear Regarding The Extent /Likelihood Of Surface Based Tstm Development...But Some Temporal /Spatial Window For Surface Based Development Could Occur Across Portions Of The Ozarks To Middle Ms Valley.
In This Case...Damaging Winds May Be Possible...And Perhaps A Limited Tornado Threat...Although Modest Boundary Layer Content And Only A Moderately Strong Low Level Jet Will Be Limiting Factors.
Of Greater Certainty Will Be For Storms To Increase Just Behind The Cold Front Tuesday Night...Especially As The Overall System Amplifies And Associated Forcing/Vertical Shear Increase Coincident With The Immediate Post-Frontal Environment. Some Severe Hail/ Localized Wind Gusts Would Be Possible In This Scenario.
Arklatex To South-Central Tx...
Father Southwest...Other Tstms...Including The Possibility Of Some
Strong/Severe...Will Be Possible Along/Behind The Southeastward
Advancing Cold Front Across The Arklatex And East/South-Central Tx
Especially Tuesday Afternoon/Night. Localized Bouts Of Severe Hail/ Perhaps Wind May Be Possible.
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