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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Tue Apr 16

Nw Tx To Sern Ks...

Progressive Large Scale Trough Will Move Into The 4-Corners Region
By 17/12z With A Corridor Of Strong Flow At Mid Levels Expected To
Extend Through The Base Of The Trough Across Nm Into The Cntrl High Plains.

Evolution Of This Feature Would Favor Lee Cyclogenesis Over Sern Co But Substantial Cp Air Mass Wedged In Over The High Plains Will Reluctantly Erode Along The Srn Fringe Across The Tx Panhandle
Into Nern Nm And Perhaps Even Retreat A Bit Over Ok During The Day. Due To The Density Of The High Plains Air Mass This Swd Displaced Boundary Should Serve As The Demarcation For Weak Low To Be Guided Into Nwrn Tx During The Overnight Hours.

It/S Not Entirely Clear How Much Convection Will Develop During The
Day Along The Stalled Cp Boundary. Nam Is The Least Aggressive In
This Manner With No Frontal Convection Or Warm Sector Tstms.

However The Gfs And Especially The Ecmwf Suggest Strong Heating
Across Nwrn Tx Should Aid In The Generation Of Potentially Severe
Tstms By Late Afternoon. This Activity Would Then Spread/Develop
Newd Into Ok After Dark. Given Deep Convection...Forecast Soundings Strongly Favor Organized Rotating Updrafts And Scattered Supercells May Evolve Within An Air Mass Characterized By Sbcape On The Order Of 2500-3000 J/Kg. This Activity Is Likely To Be Modulated By The Diurnal Cycle But The Presence Of A Llj Should Allow Convection To Be Maintained For Several Hours.

Late In The Period There Is A Secondary Risk For Convection To
Develop Across Wrn/Nrn Ok Atop Shallow Boundary Layer Along Leading Edge Of Secondary Frontal Surge. As Strong Forcing Begins To Influence This Portion Of The Srn Plains This Activity May Be The
Beginning Of An Upward Evolving Squall Line That Could Expand In
Areal Coverage Into The Day4 Period.


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