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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Thu Jun 13

A Large/Highly Amplified Ridge Will Persist Across Central Noam This Period..Flanked By A Slowly Moving Wrn U.S. Trough And A More
Rapidly Advancing Short-Wave Trough Progged To Move Across The
Northeast U.S. And Eventually Off The Mid-Atlantic Coast.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Progress Across The Intermountain
West Ahead Of The Wrn Upper System...While A Cold Front -- Trailing
From A Surface Low Crossing The Pa Vicinity -- Shifts Off The
Mid-Atlantic Coast By Evening And Trails Wwd Into The Central Gulf
Coast Region.

Ern Md/De/Ern Va/Nc Vicinity...

With The Upper System And Associated Surface Low/Front Progged To Be Crossing The Appalachians During The Morning...Some Questions Exist As To How Far W Ample Destabilization Will Occur So As To Support Severe Potential.

Attm However...It Appears That The Primary Threat Should Begin Around Midday...As Heating Yields Moderate Destabilization From Central Va/W Central Nc Ewd. Attm...It Appears That A Rapidly Intensifying/Fast-Moving Line Of Storms Should Evolve Along The Front As It Moves E Of The Higher Terrain -- With Motion And Intensity Of The Storms Aided By 50-Pls Kt Wswly Mid-Level Flow Ahead Of The Upper System.

With The Fast Motion Anticipated And Instability Expected To Be
Supportive Of Vigorous Convection...30% Probability Is Being
Introduced Across Parts Of Nern Nc And Ern Va Into The Delmarva
Region -- Where Fairly Widespread Damaging Winds Will Likely
Occur...Along With Hail.

The Threat Should Occur Relatively Early -- With The Front Likely To Clear The Chesapeake Bay By Around 21z And Move Offshore Shortly Thereafter. Threat Will Linger Longest Along Trailing Portions Of The Front Farther To The Sw...From Srn Portions Of Nc Wwd.

Sc Vicinity Wwd Across Central Gulf Coast Region...

Storm Development Is Forecast To Expand Wwd Along Trailing Portions Of The Cold Front Across Parts Of Tn And The Central Gulf Coast Region Into The Southeast During The Afternoon...As The Front
Impinges On A Moist/Destabilizing Airmass. With The Srn Fringe Of
Stronger Mid-Level Nwlys /On The Order Of 25 To 35 Kt/ Forecast To
Spread Across This Area...Bands Of Organized Storms Will Likely
Evolve...Capable Of Producing Locally Damaging Winds And Hail
Through Mid-Evening...Spreading Swd Toward The Gulf Coast/Nrn Fl
Before Storms Diminish In Intensity Overnight.

Nrn High Plains...

Slow Ewd Progress Of The Upper System Across The Nwrn U.S. Suggests That The Surface Cold Front Should Advance Well Into Mt/Wy By Afternoon...With Moderate Destabilization Expected E Of The
Front/Across The High Plains. While Capping Will Again Act To
Inhibit Storm Development/Coverage...Expect At Least Isolated Storm
Development -- Aided By Local/Weak Upslope Component Of The Sely Low-Level Flow. With Mid-Level Swlys Increasing Through The
Afternoon And Evening With The Advance Of The Upper System -- Atop
Low-Level Selys...Shear Supportive Of Organized/Rotating Storms Will
Evolve.

Thus -- Hail/Wind Potential Is Evident -- Warranting Slight Risk Inclusion...As Well As Lower Probability Risk Swd Across The Central High Plains Where An Isolated Storm Or Two Will Be Possible.


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