Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Thu Dec 13


The Spread Among The Model Ensemble Data Is Sizable During This
Forecast Period Concerning Short Wave Developments Within A Strong Mid-Latitude Jet Propagating Eastward Across The Pacific.

But Flow Will Remain Split To Its East...Across The Pacific Coast Into North America...With An Amplified Short Wave Trough/Closed Low In The Southern Stream...Likely Across California...By 12z Thursday.

And It Appears Probable That Another Significant Impulse Emanating From The Upstream Jet Will Approach The Pacific Northwest Coast...
Contributing The Eastward Acceleration Of The Southern Branch
Trough. As This Occurs...Models Continue To Indicate Interaction
With A Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Subtropical Eastern
Pacific...Leading To Further Upper Jet Intensification Around The
Based Of The Trough Through The Crest Of Downstream Short Wave
Ridging Building Through The Central/ Southern Plains And Lower
Mississippi Valley.

In Response To These Developments...A Plume Of Mid/High-Level
Moistening And Cloud Cover Appears Likely Across The Mexican Plateau Into The Southern Plains...While Low-Level Return Flow Commences Off The Western Gulf Of Mexico.

Substantive Boundary Layer Moistening Probably Will Be Confined To Far South Texas...But Moisture Return Above A Residual Cool/Stable Surface Layer May Reach Parts Of Central And Northeast Texas By Late Thursday Night. Even So...It Seems That This Will Coincide With Mid-Level Warming...Which Is Expected To Suppress The Development Of Thunderstorm Activity.

Meanwhile...Mid-Level Cooling Across Parts Of The Great Basin Into
Southern Rockies May Contribute To Weak Destabilization Sufficient
For Scattered Thunderstorm Activity Thursday Afternoon Into Thursday

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