Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sun Oct 13

Vigorous Shortwave Trough Now Over The Ern Pacific Moving Rapidly
Toward The Pacific Nw Coast Will Amplify Sewd Into The Great Basin
Sunday...Reaching The Cntrl Rockies Sunday Night.

In Association With This Feature...A Lee Cyclone Will Deepen Over The Cntrl High Plains...While Sfc Ridge Shifts Ewd Through The Great Lakes And Oh Valley. Warm Front Initially Across Ok Early Sunday Will Lift Nwd Through The Cntrl Plains During The Period... While A Pacific Front Advances Ewd Through The Cntrl And Srn Rockies.

Cntrl Through Srn High Plains...

A Sly Llj Will Strengthen Across The Cntrl/Srn High Plains East Of
Developing Lee Low. The Resulting Warm Advection And Isentropic Lift Will Contribute To Widespread Clouds And Eventually Areas Of Showers And Thunderstorms North Of The Warm Front Across The Cntrl Plains.

Despite Potential For Widespread Clouds In This Area...The
Atmosphere Should Slowly Destabilize Nwd In Association With
Low-Level Moist Advection Attending The Retreating Warm Front.

Concurrently...Steeper Mid-Level Lapse Rates Will Develop Ewd Into
The Cntrl High Plains Later Sunday...Mainly North Of The Warm Front
Where Cooler Mid-Level Temperatures Will Reside Along And North Of Jet Streak Rounding Base Of Upper Trough.

A Narrow Corridor Of Diabatic Warming May Occur Sunday Afternoon
From Ern Nm Through Ern Co Along Wrn And Nwrn Fringe Of Moist Axis Contributing To 1000-1500 J/Kg Mlcape...And A Few Storms May Develop Over The Higher Terrain Or Developing Lee Trough Axis By Evening.

Shear Profiles Will Become Increasingly Favorable For Supercells As Mid-Upper Flow Strengthens Ahead Of Upper Trough During The Evening...And Storms That Develop Will Be Capable Of Producing Isolated Damaging Wind And Large Hail.

Numerous Storms /Mostly Elevated/ Will Likely Develop Overnight From Neb Into Sd Within Zone Of Increasing Warm Advection And Isentropic Ascent Associated With The Strengthening Llj. Uncertainty Regarding The Extent Of Daytime Clouds And Destabilization Along With Late Arrival Of The Upper Trough Preclude A Categorical Risk At This Time. However...Portions Of This Area Will Probably Need To Be Included In A Slight Risk In Later Outlooks.


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