Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sun May 5

In Mid-Upper Levels...Main Belt Of Wlys Will Remain Removed From
Most Of Conus This Period...While Cut-Off Lows Described In Day-2
Outlook Dominate Pattern Aloft. Wrn Low Should Drift Erratically
Offshore Nrn Ca Coast...With Weak Troughing Extending Newd Across Nrn Rockies And Mt.

Ern Cyclone Should Drift From Ern Ar/Nwrn Ms Area Across Nrn Al ...Vertically Stacked With Weak Closed Low At Sfc. Sfc Trough Will Extend From There Esewd...But Should Pivot Slowly Nwd Across Ga ...In Step With And Possibly Collocated With Wrn Limb Of Atlc Warm
Front Also Moving Nwd Over Nern Fl/Ga Coast. Weak Triple-Point Low May Form At Intersection Of That Boundary With Residual Cold Front Over Ga Or Wrn Sc.

Sern Conus...

Isolated To Widely Scattered Tstms Are Possible Within Plume Of
Low-Level Convergence...Stg Moisture Transport And Waa Conveyor ...Which Should Be Shifting Newd Up Srn Atlc Coast Region Throughout Period Along/Ahead Of Sfc Warm Front.

Cloud Cover And Precip Will Substantially Limit Destabilization From Diabatic Heating...And It Is Uncertain Whether Low-Level Waa Can Offset Poor Lapse Rates Aloft Enough To Yield More Than A Few Hundred J/Kg Mlcape.

Thunder Cannot Be Ruled Out Elsewhere Over Sern Conus Around Cut-Off Cyclone...However Potential Appears Too Mrgl/Conditional For Aoa 10% Thunder Line Because Of Weak Lapse Rates Aloft.

Inter-Mtn W To Central Rockies...

Steep Low-Middle Level Lapse Rates Should Be Common Invof Mid-Upper Trough...While Sfc Diurnal Heating Of Higher Terrain Contributes To Potential For Deep Convective Plumes By Mid-Late Aftn. With At Least Mrgl Low-Level Moisture...Net Result Should Be Isolated To Widely Scattered...High-Based Convection...Some Of Which Will Be Deep Enough To Produce Thunder.


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