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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sun May 26

The Upper Pattern For The Day 3 Period Is Characterized By A Wrn
U.S. Upper Trough Centered Over The Pacific Nw...A Mid Level Ridge
Over The Cntrl U.S...And A Slow-To-Depart Closed Low Over New
England.

Models Hint At A Lead Disturbance Moving Into The Cntrl High Plains By Sunday Evening As A Weak Cntrl High Plains Low Becomes Established With An Attendant Lee Surface Trough/Dryline.

Cntrl And Nrn Plains...

Early Day Storms --Perhaps Ongoing At The Start Of The Period-- May
Occur Invof A Residual Nw-Se Oriented Frontal Zone Over The Mid Mo
Valley Region. Forecast Soundings Show Only Marginal Instability
And Modest Deep Flow And Would Suggest These Storms May Be
Sub-Severe.

Attention Focuses Wwd Over The Nrn-Cntrl High Plains Later In The Day As Strong Heating Is Forecast To Occur On The Wrn Edge Of Moisture Located Over The Cntrl-Nrn High Plains. A Stout Eml Featuring 12-14 Deg C H7 Temps From The Tx Panhandle Nwd Through Wrn Ks Will Likely Limit Storm Coverage From Wrn Ks Swd Into Wrn Tx On The Dryline.

Weak Height Falls By Evening Over The Cntrl High Plains In Association With An Ejecting Impulse And Generally Lowering Heights Over The Nrn Plains In Advance Of A Nrn Great Basin Speed Maxima...Would In Turn Become More Favorable For Storm Development.

Forecast Soundings From Parts Of Wrn Ks Towards The Black Hills Show A Very Steep Lapse Rate Environment With Sbcape Ranging From 1500-2500 J/Kg Expected Near And E Of The Dryline/Lee Trough. Deep Layer Shear Will Likely Remain Modest /25-35 Kt Effective Shear/ Over The Region.

Strong Heating Will Act In Concert To Weaken And Locally Erode The Cap With Isold Storm Coverage Expected. The Llj Is Forecast To Strengthen During The Evening Into The Overnight...Potentially Allowing Some Of The Evening Storms To Linger Into The Overnight.

Wrn Ks Swd Into Wrn Tx...

A Few Diurnally-Driven Storms May Form By The Late Afternoon/Early
Evening Hours Within A Deeply Mixed Boundary Layer. Shear Profiles
Will Support Some Storm Organization In The Form Of Multicells And
Perhaps Transient Supercell Structures. Isold Dmgg Winds And Large Hail May Occur With The Strongest Storms.


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