Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sun May 19

Srn And Cntrl Plains...

An Upper-Level Low Is Forecast To Develop Across The Nrn Plains
Sunday As A Negatively-Tilted Upper-Level Trough Moves Ewd Into The Srn And Cntrl Plains.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Is Forecast To Move Sewd Into The Srn And Cntrl Plains With Dewpoints Ahead Of The Front In The Mid To Upper 60s F. This Should Result In Moderate To Strong Destabilization By Late Sunday Afternoon From Ern Ks Sswwd Into Ecntrl Ok.

In Spite Of The Instability...A Strong Capping Inversion Should Hold Back Convective Initiation Until Late Afternoon. Model Forecasts Suggest Storms Will Initiate Along The Front By 00z/Mon With An Mcs Organizing And Moving Esewd Across The Region. Strong Instability Combined With Impressive Deep Layer Shear Profiles Will Create Conditions Favorable For Severe Thunderstorms.

There Exists The Possibility For Widespread Severe Weather Including A Significant Severe Weather Event.

Forecast Soundings At 00z/Mon From Kansas City Sswwd To Tulsa And Oklahoma City Show Mlcape Values Of 2500 To 3500 J/Kg With 0-6 Km Shear In The 45 To 55 Kt Range. A Mid-Level Jet Is Forecast To Move Through The Base Of The Upper-Level Trough Helping To Increase Deep Layer Shear Profiles As The Event Unfolds.

This Along With Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Be Ideal For Intense Supercell Development. Large Hail Including Hailstones Of Greater Than 2 Inches In Diameter Will Be Possible With The More Dominant Supercells.

In Addition...A Low-Level Jet Is Forecast To Intensify Early Sunday Evening Which Should Create Low-Level Shear Profiles Favorable For Tornadoes.

A Few Strong Tornadoes May Also Occur Especially If Supercells Can Remain Discrete Early Sunday Evening. A Wind Damage Threat May Also Develop And Could Become Enhanced If A Linear Mcs Organizes.

Nrn Plains/Upper Ms Valley/Mid-Mo Valley...

An Upper-Level Low Is Forecast To Develop Across The Nrn Plains On Sunday As South To Southwest Flow Remains In Place Across The Mid-Mo Valley And Upper Ms Valley.

At The Sfc...A Low Is Forecast To Move Slowly Across The Nrn Plains With A Trough Extending Swd Into The Mid-Mo Valley. The Sfc Trough Should Be The Focus For Convective Development Sunday Afternoon. The Models Suggest Several Thunderstorm Clusters Or An Mcs Will Develop And Move Newd Across The Region.

A Moderately Unstable Airmass Is Forecast Along With Strong Deep Layer Shear Profiles Suggesting That Widespread Severe
Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Sunday Afternoon And
Evening.

Forecast Soundings At Omaha And Des Moines At 21z/Sun Show Mlcape Values In The 2000 To 3000 J/Kg Range With 40 To 50 Kt Of Deep Layer Shear. This Combined With Steep Lapse Rates Should Support Supercells With Large Hail. Hailstones Of Greater Than 2 Inches Will Be Possible In The Mid-Mo Valley Where The Strongest Instability Is Forecast.

A Few Tornadoes May Also Occur With The More Dominant Supercells.

The Severe Threat Should Be More Isolated Across Ern Parts Of The Nrn Plains And In The Upper Ms Valley Where Instability Is Forecast To Be Weaker Than In Areas To The South.


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