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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sun Jun 16

Primarily Zonal Flow Regime Will Become Somewhat More Amplified By Early Mon As A Shortwave Trough Over The Prairie Provinces Digs Into The Upper Ms Valley And A Ridge Builds In The West. Subtle Mid-Level Impulses Are Anticipated To Shift Ewd In The Quasi-Zonal Pattern Downstream Of The Upper Ms Valley Trough. A Weakening Cold Front Should Cross The Great Lakes...With Trailing Portion Remaining Quasi-Stationary And W/E-Oriented Back Into The Cntrl Plains. Outflow Boundaries Will Probably Be Present S Of The Frontal Zone.

Cntrl Plains...

A Moderate To Strongly Unstable Air Mass Will Likely Develop During
The Afternoon Amidst Surface Dew Points In The Middle 50s Along The High Plains To 60s Elsewhere With Very Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates. Although Mid-Level Height Change Should Remain Neutral And Low-Level Winds Will Likely Be Weak...Scattered Tstms Should Form Off The Higher Terrain And Perhaps Along The Stationary Front Or Outflows From D2 Convection. Beneath The Right-Entrance Region Of The Upper-Level Jet That Will Intensify With Amplification Of The Shortwave Trough Into The Upper Ms Valley...Setup May Favor A Sewd-Propagating Mcs Producing Severe Wind/Hail.

Mid/Upper-Ms And Oh Valleys To The Lower Great Lakes...

Relative To Farther W...Low Confidence Exists In Highlighting A
Corridor Of Severe Risk Beyond Broad Low Probabilities Attm.
Guidance Differs With The Handling Of Subtle Mid-Level Impulses And Associated Speed Maxima Which Will Be Influenced By Preceding Days Of Convection. Despite The Wly Flow Regime...The Degree Of Instability Is Also Uncertain As Potentially Abundant Convection D1-2 May Greatly Overturn The Ern Extent Of The Plains Eml Plume. Still...Deep-Layer Shear Will Be Sufficient For Organized Convection And Later Outlooks Will Probably Warrant A Slight Risk If Confidence Increases In Where This Is Likely To Occur Sunday Afternoon/Evening.


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