From Sunday Into Early Monday The Upper Pattern Will Evolve To
Feature A Large Scale Positive Tilt Trough With An Axis Extending
From The Nrn Rockies/Nrn Plains Swwd Across The Great Basin And
Eventually Into The Lower Co River Valley.
A Swath Of Strong Swly Mid Level Flow Will Exist East And South Of This Trough...From The Srn High Plains To Midwest. A Lower Amplitude/Smaller Scale Short Wave Trough Embedded Within The Swly Flow Is Forecast To Track From The Plains To Great Lakes During This Period While Continuing To Undergo De-Amplification.
Strong Ridging...Surface And Aloft Will Dominate The East.
West And Srn Plains To Midwest...
The Probability Of Tstms Will Remain Too Low For Otlk Areas At This
Forecast Range. However...Isolated/Weak Tstms Cannot Be Completely Ruled Out With The Evolving Wrn U.S. Upper Trough Where Dynamic And Orographic Lift Will Coincide With Pockets Of Sufficient Moistening To Support Low-Topped Convection.
A Modest Warm Air And Moisture Advection Setup Is Forecast To Exist
From East Tx Across The Ozarks To Mo River Valley. Nam And Sref
Guidance Indicate Some Prospect For Convection In This Regime... Possibly Further Supported By The De-Amplifying Short Wave Trough Crossing The Region.
Isolated Nature Of This Convective Signal In Addition To Timing/ Strength Uncertainties With The Upper Impulse And Generally Very Weak/Limited Instability Preclude The Issuance Of A General Tstm Forecast Area At This Time.
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