Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sun Apr 28

Srn Stream Positive Tilt Upper Trough Is Forecast To Weaken As It
Drifts Slowly Ewd Through The Tn Valley And Sern States On Sunday.
Attendant Weak Sfc Low Will Move Newd Through The Oh Valley With
Trailing Cold Front Advancing Into The Tn Valley And Sern States
Where It Will Stall And Weaken. Trailing Portions Of The Front Will
Lift Nwd Through The Srn Plains As A Warm Front.

S Tx...

Storms May Once Again Develop Over The Higher Terrain Of Mexico And Spread Ewd Into Swrn Tx And The Rio Grande. Other Storms May Also Develop In Vicinity Of Weakening Front Or Residual Outflow
Boundaries.

As Upper Trough Continues Ewd And Weakens...Flow Aloft And Vertical Shear Should Be Less Than On Saturday...Supportive Of
Multicells And Possible Marginal Supercell Structures. It Appears
That Lapse Rates And Instability Might Become Sufficient For A Few
Storms To Produce Isolated Strong Wind Gusts And Hail.

Nm Through Swrn And Wrn Tx...

A Few High Based Storms Developing Over The Higher Terrain And Above Inverted-V Boundary Layers May Produce Isolated Strong Wind Gusts. Coverage Of Any Such Events Is Expected To Remain Sparse.

Gulf Coastal States...

Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Will Likely Develop Along And
Ahead Of The Front Within The Weakly Capped Environment Across A
Portion Of The Gulf Coastal States.

Flow Aloft Will Weaken And Widespread Clouds And Modest Lapse Rates Will Result In A Marginal Thermodynamic Environment.

While A Few Storms Might Become Capable Of Producing Isolated Strong Wind Gusts If The Boundary Layer Can Destabilize Sufficiently...Overall Threat Appears Very Marginal.


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