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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sat May 18

Progression Of The Amplified Upper Flow Field Across The U.S. Is
Forecast This Period...As A Large Trough Over The Intermountain West Advances Ewd And Begins Affecting The Plains. As This Occurs...A Trough In Lee Of The Rockies Is Forecast To Shift Ewd With Time Into The Plains...Serving As A Focus For Strong/Severe Thunderstorm Development During The Late Afternoon And Evening.

Nrn And Central Plains...

As The Sharp Upper Ridge Over The Plains Gradually Gives Way To
Falling Mid-Level Heights Ahead Of The Advancing Trough... Large-Scale Ascent Will Attempt To Erode A Very Stout Capping Inversion.

As Diurnal Heating Contributes To Moderate Cape Development Atop The Cap...Threat For Severe Storms Will Gradually Increase Through The Mid To Late Afternoon Hours. Initial Convection Will Likely Occur Over The Higher Terrain Of The High Plains Vicinity...Though Weaker Cape In This Part Of The Area Suggests Only Low-Probability Potential For Damaging Winds And Hail.

However...As Surface Troughing Shifts Ewd Into The Plains With Time
And Large-Scale Ascent Persists...Expect Scattered Storm Development To Occur By Late Afternoon And Into Early Evening -- Particularly From Srn Nd Swd Across Sd. While Sswly Flow At Mid Levels Will Limit Overall Shear To Some Degree...Profiles Will Support Organized/Supercell Storms Capable Of Producing Very Large Hail And Damaging Winds. A Couple Of Tornadoes Will Also Be Possible...Most Likely Near And Ne Of A Weak Surface Low Progged To Exist Over Sd.

Threat Should Continue Into The Evening...Shifting Slowly Ewd Before
Gradually Diminishing With Time Into The Overnight Hours.

Srn Plains...

A Capped Boundary Layer During The Morning And Early Afternoon
Should Give Way To A Deeply Mixed Lower Troposphere By Late
Afternoon...Along A Dryline Which Should Extend Swd Across Wrn Ok
And Into Portions Of Central Tx E Of The S Plains/Transpecos Region.

Isolated Storms Are Forecast Along The Dryline Where The Cap Can
Weaken Sufficiently...But Marginal Shear Is Expected Through The
Afternoon Atop The Dryline Suggesting Limited Severe Threat. The
Dry/Deep Boundary Layer Could Aid In Development Of Locally
Strong/Damaging Winds...And Hail Could Also Occur Within The
Stronger Cells.

However...Potential Coverage Of Convection Is In Question Attm...And Thus Will Introduce Only Low /5%/ Severe Probability Attm. A Storm Or Two May Linger Into The Evening...But Expect Re-Establishment Of The Cap During The Evening To Result In A Slow Decrease In Convection.


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