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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sat Jan 12

Sern Tx To Lower Oh Valley...

While The Latest Model Guidance Handles The Evolution Of Large Scale Trough And Sfc Front Similarly...Both The Gfs And Nam Are
Considerably More Complex Than The Ecmwf In Their Rendition Of
Individual Short-Waves And Associated Speed Maxima.

Models Agree That Wrn U.S. Trough Will Remain Positively Tilted In Its
Orientation With The Base Of The Trough Expected To Hold Across The Srn U.S. With A Corridor Of Stronger Flow Aloft Expected To Extend From Nrn Mexico Across Tx Into The Mid Ms Valley By The End Of The Period.

This Development Will Most Likely Result In The Progression Of Sfc Front From A Position From Srn Mo-Cntrl Tx Early In The Period To The Upper Tx Coast And Middle Tn Valley By 13/12z. Ample Moisture Is Expected To Return Across The Warm Sector For At Least Weak Instability...And Warm Advection Along The Frontal Zone Should Induce Convection Along/Post-Frontal Through The Period.

Its Not Clear There Will Be Enough Instability Given The Mostly Post-Frontal Storm Mode To Warrant Organized Severe Thunderstorms. Given The Model Short-Wave Discrepancies And Aforementioned Storm Mode...Have Opted To Keep Probabilities Less Than 5 Percent This Period.


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