Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Sat Apr 13

A Cold Front Will Stall From Fl Wwd Across The Nrn Gulf As Ern U.S.
Large Scale Trough Continues To Gradually De-Amplify And Lift From
Great Lakes To New England/Sern Canada.

In The Wake Of This System...Both Polar And Subtropical Jets Remain Evident And Active In Latest Guidance With The Former Diving Sewd From The Ne Pac Across The Northwest Coast And Into The Intermountain Region...And The Latter Leading A Low Latitude Short Wave Trough Across Mexico To The Tx Gulf Coast.

Instability In Most Areas Will Remain Too Limited For More Widespread Severe Weather. However...A Number Of Locations Could Experience Tstms.

Fl...

Scattered Diurnal Storms Are Possible Along The Cold Front Becoming Stalled Across Cntrl Portions Of The Fl Peninsula.

W Tx/Se Nm...

Passage Of A Weak Disturbance Aloft Will Coincide With Peak Heating And May Contribute To Isolated Tstms In A Weakly Unstable Airmass.

Se Tx To La Coast...

The Srn Stream Disturbance Will Continue East Through Late Saturday And Is Forecast To Induce Lift Across The Stalled Residual Front Near The Gulf Coast. Recent Model Guidance Is Coming Into Better Agreement In Suggesting The Development Of Convection And Perhaps A Small Mcs From The Tx Coast East Across Srn La Through Early Sunday.

Cntrl Plains Late...

The Nrn Stream Jet Spreading East From The Rockies And High Plains Will Induce Lee Cyclogenesis Over Ern Co/Wy With Warm Advection Forecast To Increase Over The Cntrl Plains Through Early Sunday. Strong Dynamics And Potential For Steeper Lapse Rates Should Offset Limited Moistening In The Lower Levels To Result In Scattered Convection Likely Rooted Above A Stable Surface Layer.


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