Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Sep 9

Cntrl And Nrn Plains/Upper Ms Valley...

An Upper-Level Trough Is Forecast To Move Ewd Across The Nrn High
Plains On Monday As An Upper-Level Ridge Moves Ewd Across The Upper Ms Valley. At The Sfc...A Cold Front Is Forecast To Advance Sewd Across The Dakotas Reaching Nrn Neb And Scntrl Mn By Afternoon. Pockets Of Moderate Instability Should Develop Along And Ahead Of The Front.

Thunderstorms Should Initiate Along The Boundary During The Late Afternoon And Move Esewd Across The Region Monday Evening.

Forecast Soundings At Minneapolis Mn...Sioux Falls Sd And North
Platte Neb For 00z/Tue Show Mlcape In The 1000 To 2000 J/Kg Range With About 35 Kt Of Deep Layer Shear. This Should Be Supportive Of At Least Marginally Severe Storms. Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates And Lcl Heights Well Above 850 Mb Should Favor High-Based Storms With Strong Gusty Winds. Hail Could Also Occur With Cells That Have Access To Moderate Instability.

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