Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Sep 2

As Upper Ridging Builds Within A Belt Of Stronger Westerlies To The
North...Models Indicate Little Movement Of The Closed Low Off The
Pacific Northwest Coast During This Period. And A Subtropical High
Center Encompassing Much Of The Southern Plateau/Eastern Great
Basin/Rockies And Plains Appears Likely To Maintain Strength.

However...Downstream Of A Strong Jet Streak Rounding The Northern
Periphery Of The High...And A Significant Mid-Level Short Wave
Impulse Digging Across The Central Canadian Provinces...The Upper
Trough Advancing Across The Lower Great Lakes Region At 12z Monday Appears Likely To Remain Progressive. While The Stronger Mid-Level Height Falls May Develop Northeastward Through Quebec...Amplified Cyclonic Mid-Level Flow Is Forecast To Slowly Shift Eastward Across Much Of The Mid Atlantic And Northeast States.

A Consolidating Intrusion Of Significantly Cooler/Drier Low-Level
Air Associated With This Latter Feature Likely Will Continue To
Advance South/Southeast Of The Ohio Valley And Central Plains... But
The Moist Air Mass Ahead Of It Is Expected To Remain Conducive To
The Development Of Considerable Thunderstorm Activity On Monday.

Additionally...Thunderstorms May Again Become Numerous During The Afternoon And Evening Hours In Association With Daytime Heating And Monsoonal Moisture Across The Great Basin And Southern Plateau Into The Central And Southern Rockies... And The Risk For Thunderstorm Activity Is Expected To Continue To Increase With Increasing Moisture Across The Northern Intermountain Region.


Variability Exists Among The Models Concerning Secondary Surface Low Development In Association With The Approaching Upper Trough. However...Guidance Does Generally Suggest That A Belt Of Modestly Strong Lower/Mid Tropospheric Flow Will Develop/ Overspread Northern Atlantic Coastal Areas During The Day. This Includes Much Of Southern New England...Where Seasonably High Boundary Layer Moisture Content Is Expected To Prevail...With Surface Dew Points In The 70s. Forecast Soundings Indicate That Low-Level Hodographs Could Become Fairly Sizable Within This Environment...Perhaps Large Enough To Support A Risk For Damaging Wind Gusts...Or A Tornado Or Two...With Thunderstorm Activity Expected To Develop Across The Region.

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