Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Oct 7

A Large Upper Low Will Continue To Drift Ewd Across The Midwest And Oh Valley...With Low Centered Over Nrn Il At 00z.

At The Surface...A Weak Cold Front Will Also Drift Ewd...Along A Line From Wrn Pa Into Wv And Nrn Ga At The Same Time.

Ahead Of The Front...Mid 60s F Dewpoints Will Spread Nwd Into Pa/Srn New England...Beneath Relatively Strong Flow Aloft. The Result Will Be Scattered Thunderstorms Along The Cold Front...And Some Could Be Severe.

To The S...The Remnants Of Karen Will Likely Be Over Ga Or Sc...And
Will Help Bring Tropical Moisture Nwd....Resulting In An Enhanced
Threat Of A Few Strong To Severe Storms.

Cntrl Ny...Pa...Va...Wv And Md...

It Will Be Relatively Warm And Moist Ahead Of The Cold Front As Sly
Low Level Flow Increases Dewpoints During The Day. Forecast
Soundings Show Hodographs Favorable For Supercells...But The
Instability Values Could Be Quite Low As Heating Is Hampered By
Clouds And Precip. In Any Case...Lapse Rates Will Be Poor.

Still...Given The Very Slow Movement Of The Cold Front...And The
Fact That Most Models Produce Warm Sector Precip Ahead Of The
Front...Some Cellular Convection Is Anticipated. Model Trends Will
Be Monitored For A Possible Slight Risk Upgrade In Later Outlooks.
The Various Models Currently Have Disagreements As To Timing Of The Strongest Forcing...Which Will Have An Impact On Both Convective Coverage And Strength Of The Shear.

Ga Into The Carolinas...

A Weak Surface Low In Association With Karen Is Expected To Move Nwd Across Ga During The Day And Into Sc Overnight. Marginal Instability Will Be In Place Due To Boundary Layer Dewpoints In Excess Of 70f...And Models Forecast Modest Effective Srh With Values Around 100-200 M2/S2. If This Occurs...Then Some Of The Convection Near Or E Of The Surface Low Could Acquire Rotation With Brief/Weak Tornadoes Possible And/Or Locally Strong Wind Gusts.


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