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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Oct 28

An Increasingly Amplified Large-Scale Pattern Is Expected To Evolve
Into Monday...Notably Highlighted By An Amplifying/South-Southwestward Digging Upper Trough And Strong Polar Jet Over The Great Basin/Southwest States.

To The East...Gradual Height Rises Are Anticipated From The Central/Southern Plains To The Mid-Atlantic And Southeast States...Generally Coincident With A Belt Of Moderately Strong/ Confluent Upper Flow.

Southern High Plains To Lower Mo Valley...

Under The Influence Of Weak Height Rises...Persistent Moist
Advection Will Occur Especially Across The Southern Plains On
Monday...And Subsequently Into Additional Parts Of The Ozarks/Lower
Mo Valley Monday Night.

By Afternoon...Seasonally Moist Upper 50s/Lower 60s F Surface Dewpoints Are Expected To Be Increasingly Common With A Warm/Moist Sector Along And Southeast Of A Sharpening Frontal Zone Extending From The Southern High Plains East-Northeastward To The Lower Mo Valley. This Will Also Be To The East Of A Surface Low/Lee Trough That Is Expected To Develop/Sharpen Especially Late Monday Afternoon Into Monday Night.

Current Thinking Is That At Least A Low Or Conditional-Type
Potential For Isolated Surface Based Tstms May Exist Monday
Afternoon/Early Evening Across The Southern High Plains...Especially
In Vicinity Of The Surface Low And Sharpening Surface Trough/Dryline
And Nearby Frontal Boundary.

Should Such Development Occur...Moderate Instability And 45+ Kt Of Effective Bulk Shear Would Support A Risk For Supercells Including Large Hail And Possibly Some Tornado Threat. However...Especially Given Somewhat Subtle Large Scale Influences And Some Lingering Guidance Variability At The Day 3 Juncture...The Exact Extent/ Likelihood Of Such Surface Based Development Monday Afternoon/ Early Evening Is Questionable.

Of More Certainty Will Be For Storms To Nocturnally Increase Monday Evening/Overnight Across Much Of Ks And The Adjacent Mo Valley Along/North Of The Surface Frontal Zone. At Least Some Severe Hail Risk Would Be Possible With The Strongest Storms Monday Night.

Overall...Given Some Large-Scale Uncertainties Related To The
Digging/Potentially Delayed Nature Of The Southwest States Trough ...Will Only Introduce Low Severe Probabilities At This Time.

Areas Such As The Tx/Ok Panhandles And Northwest Ok Into Parts Of Ks Will Be Subsequently Reevaluated For A Possible Categorical Slight Risk.


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