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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Oct 14

Vigorous Shortwave Trough Embedded Within Wrn U.S. Synoptic Trough Will Eject From The Cntrl High Plains Early Monday To The Upper Ms Valley Later Monday Night. The Accompanying Sfc Low Will Lift Newd Through Neb With Trailing Cold Front Surging Sewd Through The Cntrl Plains Late Monday Afternoon And Evening... Eventually Merging With The Dryline. A Warm Front Extending Sewd From The Low Will Lift Nwd Through Ks And Sern Neb

Cntrl Plains Area...

Widespread Showers And Thunderstorms Will Likely Be Ongoing At The Start Of This Period From Tx Through The Cntrl Plains Within Zone Of Deep Subtropical Moisture Along The Warm Conveyor Belt Attending A Strong Sly Llj. This Activity Will Gradually Shift Newd During The Day In Association With The Ejecting Shortwave Trough...But Will Likely Negatively Impact Destabilization Potential.

In Wake Of Early Storms...A Corridor Of Diabatic Warming May Occur As Low Clouds Mix Out In Dry Slot Region Ahead Of The Cold Front From Wrn/Cntrl Neb Swd Through Wrn/Cntrl Ks With An Axis Of Modest /500-1000 J/Kg/ Mlcape Possible.

Additional Storms May Initiate Along Sewd Surging Cold Front And Along Dryline-Cold Front Merger Where Strong /45-50 Kt/ Vertical Shear Will Support Storm Organization Including Supercells And Bowing Line Segments. Damaging Wind And Large Hail Will Be The Main Threats With This Activity As It Develops Ewd Through Cntrl Neb And Ks. However...A Couple Tornadoes Cannot Be Ruled Out... Especially If Discrete Storms Can Initiate Along Dryline Ahead Of The Front.

Given Potential Limiting Factors And Conditional Nature Of The Threat Imposed By Expected Ongoing Storms Along Warm Conveyor Belt...Will Introduce 5% Severe Probabilities This Outlook. However... An Upgrade To Slight Risk Might Be Needed In The Next Day 2 Update.


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