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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Nov 26

Synopsis...

Large Scale Pattern Amplification Will Continue To Occur Into Monday ...Highlighted By Gradual Longwave Trough Development East Of The Rockies.

A Cold Front Will Steadily Advance Southeastward Across The Southern Plains/Arklatex/Lower Ms Valley With Increasing Convective Potential Near The Front By Monday Afternoon/Night.

East Tx/Southeast Ok/Arklatex To Lower Ms Valley...

Given The Aforementioned Large Scale Scenario And Anticipated
Gradual Airmass Modification Into Monday...The Advancing Cold Front
Will Intercept An Increasingly Moist Low-Level Airmass Across The
Region...With Lower 60s F Surface Dewpoints Expected In The Warm
Sector By Peak Heating. This Moisture May Contribute To As Much As
1000-2000 J/Kg Of Mlcape Monday Afternoon/Evening.

While Some Timing/Amplitude Spread Exists Amongst Available
Guidance...Current Thinking Is That Tstms Will Increase Through The
Afternoon And...More So...Evening Near The Advancing Front Across
Areas Potentially Including East Tx/Far Southeast Ok And The
Arklatex.

Based On Forecast Soundings...Vertical Shear Will Be At Least Marginally Supportive /30-40 Kt Effective Shear/ Of Organized Storm Structures Including Some Possible Supercells/Bows.

The Region Will Be Reevaluated In Subsequent Outlooks For A Possible Categorical Slight Risk.


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