Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Nov 19


In Mid-Upper Levels...Expect Pattern Over Conus To Remain Progressive And To Temporarily Become More Zonal This Period.

Main Exception Will Be Over Pac Nw...Where Strengthening Height Gradient And Swlys Aloft Are Progged...As Major Gulf Of Ak Cyclone Shifts Swd Across Nern Pac. Positively Tilted Shortwave Trough And Related Vorticity Banner...Related To Speed Max Now Over Bering Sea...Is Expected To Move Ashore Wa/Ore During 19/21z-20/06z Time Frame.

Weak Sfc Cold Front...Associated With Nrn-Stream Perturbation Aloft
-- Should Move Ewd Across Upper Midwest And Central Plains... Becoming Diffuse And Hard To Distinguish From Ambient Lee
Troughing Regime Over Srn High Plains. Diffuse Dryline May Develop
By Mid-Afternoon From Nw Ok Swwd Across Permian Basin Region.

Sw Ok To Sw Tx...

Continuing Low-Level Waa/Isentropic Lift Regime Will Support
Potential For Blend Of Convective And Stratiform Precip Over This
Region...Including Some Diurnally-Aided/Sfc-Based Convection During Midday To Late Afternoon Time Frame Along/E Of Dryline. This Area Also Will Lie On Srn Fringe Of Lee Troughing...And Wrn Fringe Of Incompletely Modified Return-Flow Air Mass...With Sfc Dew Points 50s F. Isolated To Widely Scattered Tstms Are Possible...With
Coverage/Intensity Limited By Combination Of Weak Lapse Rates/ Buoyancy Aloft...And Lack Of More Robust Low-Level Forcing.

Coastal Pac Nw...

Low-Level Frontal/Convergence Band Preceding Mid-Upper Shortwave Trough Will Be Accompanied By Steepening Low-Middle Level Lapse Rates And Enhanced Lift. This Regime...Along With Continued Postfrontal/Midlevel Cooling Above Marine Layer...Will Support Potential For Isolated/Episodic Tstms Invof Coast.

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