Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon May 6

In Mid-Upper Levels...Split-Flow Pattern Will Prevail Over Main Body
Of North America...With Primary Streams Over Nrn Canada And Srn
Conus/Nrn Mex Respectively.

Ern And Wrn Cut-Off Lows Described In Day-2 Outlook Each Should Move Slowly Ewd...Ern Cyclone Crossing Portions Ga/Carolinas Through Period...And Wrn Low Possibly Moving Ashore Central Ca Late In Period.

Some Uncertainty Remains As To Whether This LatterFeature Moves Inland Day-3 Or Early Day-4. Nevertheless...Amongst Various Operational/Ensemble Progs...Fcst Evolution And Phase Speed Of Latter Feature Is Not Anywhere Nearly As Disparate As In Models Initialized 24 Hours Prior.

At Sfc...Occluded Front Is Expected To Continue Traveling Newd Over
Coastal Carolinas Region From Day-2 Position. Secondary Low
Formation May Occur Along This Boundary Over Sc Or Srn/Ern Nc During Aftn/Evening...However Highest-Thetae Maritime Warm Sector Should Remain Offshore.

Sern Conus...

Roughly Triangular Corridor Of Mrgl Sfc-Based Buoyancy May Extend
Inland Across Portions Carolinas Coastal Plain And Piedmont...Along
And N Of Sfc Boundary Where Sfc-850 Mb Layer Convergence Should Be Relatively Maximized. Ely Flow Should Elongate Low-Level Hodographs Amidst Low-Level Waa Conveyor. However... Considerable Cloud/Precip Cover Should Limit Boundary-Layer Destabilization....Beneath Weak Lapse Rates Aloft.

Farther Sw...Low-Level Moisture Wrapping Behind Day-1/Day-2 Dry Slot Across Portions Ga/Al/Nrn Fl May Become Juxtaposed With Pockets Of Diabatic Sfc Heating Sufficient To Support Tstms... Primarily During Aftn And Evening. Though Predominant Wly Component Should Limit Both Low-Level Shear And Convergence... Stg Winds Aloft Around Swrn/Srn Rim Of Cyclone May Support Enough Cloud-Layer Shear For Organized Tstms.

Svr Tstm Potential Appears Too Mrgl And/Or Conditional To Assign
Probabilities Attm.

Wrn Conus...

Band Of Elevated Tstms Associated With Ejecting/Weakening Shortwave Trough May Be Ongoing From End Of Day-2 Period Across Portions Far W Tx And Ern/Srn Nm...But Should Weaken Into Midday As Supportive Low-Level Waa Conveyor And Ejecting Mid-Upper Shortwave Each Lose Definition. Isolated To Widely Scattered Tstms May Form In Residual Low-Level Convergence/Moisture Zone During Late-Aftn Heating Period.

Otherwise...
Widely Scattered To Isolated Mainly Aftn Tstms Will Occur Of Portions Srn/Central Rockies...Nrn Intermountain W And Wwd To Near Pac Coast Of Ore/Nwrn Ca. Though Deep-Layer Flow And Shear Each Should Be Weak...Sufficient Heating/Buoyancy May Develop Over Portions Interior Ore To Support Stg Downdrafts.


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