Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon May 13

While A Large/Pronounced Upper Trough Will Reside Over Ern Noam At The Start Of The Period...An Overall Deamplification Of The Upper
Flow Pattern Across The Conus Is Expected As This Trough Slowly
Shifts Into The Atlantic And Canadian Maritimes.

Meanwhile...Deamplification Will Be Aided Further As An Upper Trough Approaching The Pac Nw At The Start Of The Period Shifts Inland And Weakens As It Impinges On The Downstream Ridge. The Overall Result Of This Interaction Will Be A Weakening Of The Trough And A Flattening Of The Ridge...And Thus A Low-Amplitude Flow Field Across The Wrn Half Of The U.S. By The End Of The Period.

At The Surface...
A Cold Front Is Forecast To Advance Across The Pac Nw And Eventually Into The Great Basin And Nrn Intermountain Region Ahead Of The Advancing/Deamplifying Trough...While Central U.S. Troughing Shifts Across The Plains. E Of The Ms Valley...High
Pressure Is Forecast To Prevail As An Ern Canada Surface Low
Retreats Nwd/Away From The Nern U.S. Through The Period.

Nern Oregon Enewd Into Central Mt...

Showers And Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop During The
Afternoon Across Id/Wrn Mt And Vicinity...As The Upper System And
Associated Cold Front Affect The Area. While Diffluent Flow Aloft
Ahead Of The Upper System And Strong Deep-Layer Wind Field Will
Overspread This Region -- Both Of Which Would Support Organized /Vigorous Convection...Very Marginal Instability Expected Across The Area Will Serve To Limit Convective Intensity.

Attm...It Appears That Only 100 To 200 J/Kg Mixed-Layer Cape Will Be
Available During The Afternoon Ahead Of The Front. Therefore... Despite The Otherwise Favorable Dynamic/Kinematic Environment ...Convection Will Likely Struggle To Become Organized To Any Appreciable Degree.

Thus -- Will Introduce Only Low /5%/ Severe Probability Attm...To Cover The Potential That A Stronger Cell Or Two Briefly Reaches Severe Levels Near Peak Heating.


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