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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Mar 4

Srn High Plains To Tn Valley...

Ca Short-Wave Trough Is Expected To Eject Esewd Across The Srn
Rockies Before Translating Into The Lower Ms Valley In Response To
Nrn Rockies Digging Upper Low.

Airmass Modification Across The Wrn Gulf Basin Will Be Slow Ahead Of This Feature And The Leading Edge Of 50s Sfc Dew Points Should Advance Across The Arklatex By 05/00z With Moist Advection Persisting Ahead Of Cold Front Into The Wrn Tn Valley Into The Early Morning Hours.

Very Steep Lapse Rates Will Spread Across The Srn High Plains During The Afternoon Which May Aid A Few High Based Tstms Across Parts Of Nm/Nw Tx.

However...Strong Capping Should Suppress Deep Convection
Downstream Until Later In The Evening Hours When Boundary Layer
Moistening Will Interact With Advancing Cold Front Across Ar. Forecast Soundings Suggest Parcels Lifted Between 850-900mb Will
Yield Mucape On The Order Of A Few Hundred J/Kg.

While Scattered Tstms Should Expand In Areal Coverage During The Overnight Hours Across Nern Ar Into Tn It Appears Instability Will Be Inadequate To Warrant Any Meaningful Threat For Organized Severe Thunderstorms.


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