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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Mar 18

A Vigorous Mid-Upper Level Trough Will Translate Ewd From The Mid Mo Valley/Upper Midwest Ewd Into The Oh Valley/Lower Great Lakes By Tuesday Morning.

While The Primary Surface Cyclone Moves From The Upper Midwest Into Ontario...A Weaker Low Will Move Newd Along A Front Into The Middle Oh Valley During The Day.

Sctd Tstms Are Forecast To Develop By Late Morning/Early Afternoon Along A Sewd Advancing Cold Front From Parts Of The Oh Valley Swd Into Parts Of The Deep South.

Strengthening Mid-High Level Flow And Increasing Low-Level Moisture/Instability Will Seemingly Support A Risk For Severe Storm Activity From Parts Of The Oh Valley Swd Into Al...With Perhaps A Lingering Strong/Severe Storm Threat Into The Overnight From The Nrn Gulf Coast States Ewd Into The Carolinas.

Portions Of The Oh/Tn Valleys Into The Southeastern States...

Ongoing Showers/Tstms Invof The Front At The Start Of The Period
Will Probably Contribute To Widespread Cloud Cover Over Ky And
Portions Of Adjacent States. The Timing Of The Front Should Act To
Limit The Wrn Extent Of More Robust Tstms To Portions Of Middle
Tn/Ern Ky...With The Air Mass Destabilizing E Of The Front. The
Quality Of Richer Low Level Moisture Remains In Question... Particularly Over The Nrn Portion Of The Modified Warm Sector In The Oh Valley.

Model Consensus Generally Shows Surface Dewpoints Rising Into The Low 50s Near The Oh River And Into The Lower 60s Farther S Over N-Cntrl Al. This Would Support An Increasingly Pinched Plume Of Marginal Buoyancy On The Order Of Several Hundred J/Kg Sbcape Over Parts Of Ky Where Storm Coverage Appears Greater -- Potentially In A Band Of Storms. Despite Destabilization Concerns/ Limitations...Strong Deep Shear Profiles Would Support Organized Storm Structures And A Potential Wind Damage Threat.

Farther S Over Srn Middle Tn Into Parts Of Ms/Al/Ga...Tstm Coverage Will Be Lower...Correspondingly Due To Less Large Scale Upper Support. However...Greater Buoyancy With Upwards Of 750-1500
J/Kg Mlcape Per Forecast Soundings May Yield A Higher Magnitude Of
Severe Threat During The Afternoon-Evening Hours Before The Front
Moves Through The Area.

During The Overnight Hours...Decreasing Moisture With E/Newd Extent And Effects From Diurnal Stabilization Will Probably Lead To A
General Decrease In Tstm Coverage/Intensity As The Primary Upper
Forcing For Ascent Remains Well To The N Over The Oh Valley/Great
Lakes And H85 Flow Continues To Veer.

Despite These Limiting Factors...A Lingering Strong/Severe Storm Threat May Persist With Residual Tstm Activity Along The Sewd Moving Front Over Ms/Al Ewd Into Parts Of Ga/Sc.


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