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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Jun 24

Central Plains/Mid Ms Valley...

Mid Level Flow Is Expected To Gradually Weaken Across Much Of The
Conus Over The Next Few Days.

Mean Long Wave Trough Should Hold Across The Nwrn U.S. But Several Weak Embedded Disturbances Should Eject Across The Nrn/Cntrl Rockies Toward The Midwest Where Weak Long Wave Ridging Should Prevail.

The Most Dominant...And Possibly Most Influential...Feature During The Day3 Period Will Be The Near Steady State Position Of Llj Across Ks Into Swrn Ia. Llj Should Modulate Nocturnal Convection Along/ North Of E-W Sfc Boundary That Is Expected To Gradually Lift Nwd Through The Period.

Slgt Risk Has Been Introduced Across The Cntrl Plains Into The Mid
Ms Valley To Account For Diurnally Enhanced Convection Along
Aforementioned Boundary And For Nocturnal Mcs Activity That May
Focus Along Nose Of Llj.

Latest Nam/Gfs/Ecmwf Depict Timing Differences Regarding One Or More Weak Short-Wave Troughs That Should Influence Deep Convection. It/S Not Clear Where These Disturbances Will Ultimately Reside During The Mid Afternoon But Strong Boundary Layer Heating Is Expected To Aid Tstm Development As Cap Weakens.

There Appears To Be At Least A Low Probability For Robust Updrafts Capable Of Producing Wind/Hail Across Much Of The Cntrl Plains States Toward Lake Mi During The Day3 Period But Influences Of Day2 Convection And Short-Wave Timing Will Prove Problematic Regarding Specific Detail/Placement.


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