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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Jun 17

Consistency Is Poor In Both Run-To-Run Variability Within Each
Individual Model And In The Broader Spread Among All Guidance With
The Handling Of Short Wave Impulses E Of The Rockies. This Breeds
Rather Low Confidence In Delineating Slight Risk Areas Outside Of
The High Plains. On The Large-Scale...The Amplifying Trend To
Mid-Level Heights Should Persist From D2.

A Broad Trough Will Persist Across Sern Canada. A Ridge Will Gradually Shift Ewd From The Rockies Towards The High Plains...As An Upstream Trough Approaches The Pacific Nw Coast.

Cntrl High Plains...

Modest Low-Level Upslope Flow Will Persist And Should Aid In The
Development Of Isolated To Scattered Tstms Along The Higher Terrain Mon Afternoon. Although Available Buoyancy Will Be Somewhat Dependent On Evolution Of D2 Convection...Steep Lapse Rates Will Likely Yield At Least A Moderately Unstable Air Mass.

Mid-Level Wlys Should Be A Bit Weaker Compared To D2 With Approach Of A Ridge...But Sufficient Veering Of The Wind Profile With Height Should Exist For Organized Updrafts Capable Of Primarily Large Hail And Localized Severe Winds.

Cntrl/Srn Plains...Ms Valley To The Mid-Atlantic...

East Of The Cntrl High Plains...Convective Evolution Is Unclear
Given Both Synoptic And Mesoscale Predictability Issues Within
Guidance.

A Belt Of Moderate To Strong Mid-Level Wlys Should Be Maintained From The Upper Ms Valley To The Upper Mid-Atlantic. This Appears Largely To Remain N Of The More Strongly Unstable Air Mass
Anticipated To Reside Across The Plains Into The Midwest. Given An
Ill-Defined Surface Pattern As Well As Differences In Handling Of
Shortwave Impulses Rotating Within The Broader Sern Canada
Trough...Will Just Highlight A Very Large Corridor Of Low Severe
Probabilities Attm.

There Are Also Indications That An Mcv May Emanate Out Of A Cntrl
Plains Mcs That May Develop On D2. If This Indeed Occurs...A Focus
For Organized Severe Potential Could Become Evident Somewhere From The Ozark Plateau To The Lower Oh Valley On Mon.


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