A Progressive Upper Flow Pattern Is Forecast This Period...As An
Upper Trough Over The Midwest Shifts Steadily Ewd Into The Nern U.S. With Time...While Troughing/Complex Cyclonic Flow Evolves Over The West. In Between...Ridging Is Forecast To Shift Out Of The Rockies And Into The Central U.S. Through The End Of The Period.
At The Surface...A Cold Front Is Forecast To Move Very Slowly Sewd
Across The Pac Nw Region...With Lee Troughing Forecast Across The High Plains.
Meanwhile In The East...A Weak Low Is Forecast To Traverse The Midwest/Oh Valley...Along With A Trailing Cool Front That Should Cross The Appalachians Through The Second Half Of The Period.
Portions Of The Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Region And Vicinity...
Modest Destabilization Across Portions Of The Midwest And Northeast Will Combine With Ample Flow Aloft Ahead Of The Advancing Trough To Support Limited Severe Potential As Showers And Thunderstorms Expand Across The Region Through The Afternoon. While Pockets Of Greater Severe Potential May Evolve -- Possibly Immediately Ahead Of The Cold Front Over The Mid/Upper Oh Valley Area And Perhaps Invof The Mid-Atlantic Region... Confidence With Respect To Any Such Concentration Of Severe Threat Remains Low -- And Thus Will Include Only Low /5%/ Severe Probability Attm.
Nrn Intermountain Region Into The Nrn High Plains...
As Ridging Crosses The High Plains Region...Most Of The Convective
Potential Is Forecast To Remain Confined To The Intermountain West. A Low-End Severe Threat Is Evident Across Mt During The Afternoon And Evening...But Very Limited Instability Is Expected Which Should Temper This Risk. Some Threat May Expand Into The Ern Mt Vicinity Late As An Esely Low-Level Jet Develops...But With Ridging Aloft Still Progged To Prevail Aloft...Threat Should Remain Limited.
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