Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Jul 29

Models Suggest That Subtropical Ridging Will Continue To Expand
Northward And Eastward Through Much Of The Central And Southern Tier Of The U.S. During This Forecast Period.

As This Occurs...A Belt Of Westerlies On Its Increasingly Broad Northern Periphery Will Become More Anticyclonic At Mid To Upper Levels...From The Pacific Coast Through The Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies And Plains...Into The Great Lakes And Ohio Valley...In The Wake Of A Remnant Large Closed Low Shifting From The Lower Great Lakes Region Toward New England.

At Lower To Mid-Levels...Weak Upper Troughing...With Embedded Smaller Scale Impulses...Developing To The Lee Of The Central Rockies On Sunday...Is Forecast To Continue Slowly Eastward Across The Central Plains On Monday. As This Occurs...A Southerly
Low-Level Return Flow Is Expected To Persist Across The Southern
Into Central Plains.

Central Plains...

Forcing Associated With The Mid-Level Trough...And Lower/Mid
Tropospheric Warm Advection On The Northeastern Periphery Of The
Building Upper Ridge...Are Expected To Be Supporting Considerable
Convective Development Across Parts Of Kansas/Western Missouri And Adjacent Areas Early Monday.

As This Activity Wanes During The Midday Hours...Evapotranspiration And Continuing Moisture Advection Are Expected To Result In Further Boundary Layer Moistening Across Parts Of Central/Eastern Kansas ...And Adjacent Northeast Oklahoma Into The Missouri Ozarks. Surface Dew Points Will Probably Will Reach 70f+...Which...With Afternoon Insolation...Is Expected To Yield Sizable Mixed Layer Cape Of 2000-3000+ J/Kg...Despite Little Substantive Steepening Of Mid-Level Lapse Rates.

Given This Cape...And A Moderately Sheared 30-40 Kt Lower/Mid
Tropospheric Wind Field Accompanying The Perturbation...It Does Not
Appear Out Of The Question That Renewed Convective Development
During The Late Afternoon And Evening Hours Could Include
Supercells...And One Or Two Upscale Growing Organized Storm Clusters With A Risk For Severe Wind Gusts.


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