Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Jul 22

A Low Amplitude Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Move From The Upper Ms Valley Ewd Across The Upper Great Lakes With A Surface Low Moving From Nrn Mn Mon Morning Toward Lake Superior By 00z Tue.

Extending Swwd From This Low Will Be A Cold Front Across Upper Mi...Nrn Wi And Into Ia. A Weak Surface Trough Will Then Continue Swwd Across Ia...Neb...And Into Wrn Ks Where A Secondary Area Of Low Pressure Will Be Present. Scattered Thunderstorms Are Expected Along The Entire Length Of This Front And Low Pressure Trough...And A Few Will Likely Be Severe With Sporadic Hail And Wind.

Elsewhere...A Weak Ern U.S. Trough Will Also Result In Scattered
Daytime Storms From The Oh Valley Sewd Into The Mid Atlantic...But
Primarily Non-Severe.

Mn...Nrn Wi...Upper Mi...

Although Some Model Differences In Amplitude And Timing Of The
Shortwave Trough Exist...Consensus Is For At Least Isolated Strong
To Severe Storms To Develop From Nrn Wi Into Upper Mi Monday
Afternoon Along A Cold Front. Some Of These Storms Could Be
Supercells Given Veering Wind Profiles And Speed Shear With
Height...But Instability Levels As Well As Capping Remain In
Question As Temperatures Aloft Will Not Be Particularly Cool.

Wrn Ks Into Neb...

Clusters Of Diurnally Driven Storms Are Expected From Wrn Ks Into
Neb And Ia Near The Low Pressure Trough And Where Heating Will Be Strong. Lapse Rate Profiles Will Be Steep Area-Wide...With Veering Low To Midlevel Winds Creating A Marginal Setup For A Few Supercells Capable Of Large Hail And Damaging Wind Gusts. As Corridors Of Potential Severe Become Better Defined In Later Outlooks...A Slight Risk Could Be Issued.


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