Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Jul 15

Model Consensus Indicates Quasi-Stationary Large Scale Pattern Will Continue On Monday...With Stronger Westerly Winds Confined To The Nrn Border Region. A Stronger Short Wave Trough Currently Over Nwrn Canada Is Forecast To Turn Ewd Across Srn Parts Of Bc...Alberta And Saskatchewan And Enhance Convective Storms Over Ern Mt And Wrn Nd.

Elsewhere...A Large Ridge Is Forecast To Expand Wwd From The Middle Atlantic States And Great Lakes Across The Middle Ms Valley. The Srn Plains Upper Low Will Slowly Weaken As It Moves Wwd Into
Nm...While Heights Are Forecast Fall Along The Nrn Ca And Oregon
Coast As A Pacific Low Approaches From The West.

Ern Mt/Wrn Nd...

Model Forecast Soundings Show Winds Veering And Increasing With Height With 40-45 Kt Of Deep Layer Shear Across Ern Mt And Wrn Nd...Which Will Promote Organized Convective Structures Including A Few Supercells. Large Hail...Damaging Wind Gusts And Several Tornadoes May Be Possible As Storms Spread Slowly Ewd Across
The Area Through The Evening. Activity May Persist Well After Dark
As A 30-40 Kt Nocturnal Low Level Jet Strengthens From Wrn Sd Into
Central Nd.

Srn High Plains...

Convective Storms May Be Enhanced During The Afternoon And Evening As The Upper Low Moves Wwd From Ok And W Tx Into Nm. Although The System Is Forecast To Continue Slowly Weakening With Time...Locally Steeper Lapse Rates In Cloud-Free Areas And Forcing For Ascent Suggest Potential For A Few Stronger Storms To Develop.

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