Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Jan 7

South Tx...

Latest Model Guidance Is In Fairly Good Agreement Regarding The
Evolution Of Upper Trough As It Digs Sewd Across The Swrn U.S.
Deserts Into Nrn Mexico By 08/12z.

While Associated Mid Level Speed Max Should Remain South Of The U.S. Border...It Is Becoming Increasingly Likely That Diffluent Large Scale Flow Aloft Will Induce A Large Region Of Ascent Across South Tx And Warm Advection Should Increase Markedly At Fairly Low Latitudes.

It Appears A Sfc Cyclone Will Track Sewd Across Nrn Mexico To A Position Near The Lower Rio Grande Valley By Daybreak Tuesday Morning. In All Likelihood At Least Modified Maritime Tropical Air Will Begin To Spread Inland Along The Lower Tx Coast As Sely Low Level
Trajectories Become More Favorable For Moisture Return.

Forecast Soundings Also Suggest Near-Sfc Based Buoyancy Is Possible As Mid-Upper 60s Dew Points Advect Beneath Gradually Steepening Mid Level Lapse Rates.

For This Reason Have Opted To Introduce Low Severe Probs For The Possibility For Isolated Supercells Along Leading Edge Of Large Scale Forcing Within Warm Advection Zone.


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