Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Jan 28

Missouri Valley To Midwest Through Early Tuesday...

The Wrn U.S. Positive Tilt Trough Axis Will Begin To Spread East
Toward An Increasingly Warm/Moist Airmass Likely To Be Situated From Tx Newd Into The Midwest.

While Latest Guidance Is Still Not In Ideal Agreement With The Evolution Of The Large Scale Trough...That Becomes Even More Of An Issue Beyond This Forecast Period.

For This Forecast...The General Pattern Evolving Across The Cntrl U.S. Will Likely Support A Strengthening Warm/Moist Conveyor Belt On The Wrn Flank Of A Large Anticyclone Moving Over The Ern Seaboard. Strengthening Mid Level Swly Flow Ahead Of The Trough...Along With Modest Height Falls And Surface Pressure Falls In The Lee Of The Rockies Late In The Period...Will Contribute To An Intensification Of The Great Plains Low Level Jet.

Given The Existing Reservoir Of Modest Boundary Layer Moisture Residing Across The Tx Coastal Plain Attm...And No Recent Strong Intrusions Of Cp Air Into The Nwrn Gulf...It Seems Reasonable To Expect Strong Moisture Transport And Gradual Destabilization As Far North As Mo/Il From Monday Night Into Tuesday Morning.

While Stronger Dynamic Ascent Associated With The Mid/Upper Trough Will Likely Remain West Of The Developing Warm Sector Through Monday Night...Isentropic Ascent On The Nose Of The Low Level Jet Should Support Scattered Elevated Tstms Developing By
Tuesday Morning From Ern Ks Across Mo And Perhaps As Far North As Ern Ia And Wrn Il.


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