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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Feb 25

A Vigorous Shortwave Trough Will Eject From The Srn Plains Monday
Morning To The Tn Valley Area By 12z Tuesday.

Models Have Trended Slower...And Current Run Of The Ecmwf As Well As Several Sref Members Develop This Feature Farther South Across The Srn Plains Than Nam And Gfs.

Attendant Sfc Low Will Occlude Over The Lower/Mid Ms Valley Monday Night.

Secondary Cyclogenesis Is Forecast From Srn Ga To Coastal Carolinas In Association With An Upper Jet Rotating Through Base Of The Trough.

The Front Trailing From The Occluded Low Will Advance Through Most Of The Sern States...While A Warm Front Lifts Nwd Into Gulf Coastal Region.

Srn Portion Of Gulf Coastal States...

Uncertainty Persists Regarding How Far Inland The Warm Sector Can
Advance Given Likelihood Of Cool Sfc Stable Layer Associated With Cp High Pressure That Will Be Centered From The Oh Valley Into The
Carolinas...And Likelihood Of Widespread Rain North Of Warm Front.

The Ecmwf And Several Sref Members Have Trended Slightly Farther
South With Track Of The Shortwave Trough And Would Suggest It May Be More Difficult To Advect A Quality Warm Sector Farther Inland.

Nevertheless...Potential Will Exist For A Warm Sector With Mid 60s
Dewpoints To Develop Into Srn Portions Of The Gulf Coastal States.

This Will Be Coincident With Strengthening Llj East Of Secondary
Cyclogenesis Region Over The Gulf Coastal States.

Areas Of Convection Will Likely Be Ongoing Within Zone Of Isentropic
Ascent North Of The Warm Front. This Activity Will Gradually Lift Nwd During The Day. Other Storms Will Develop Along Conveyor Belt Within The Nwd Expanding Pre-Frontal Warm Sector.

Strong Effective Shear Will Support The Potential For Organized Storms IncludingLinear Bowing Segments And A Few Embedded Supercells.

As The Llj Strengthens...Hodographs Will Become Increasingly Favorable For Low Level Mesocyclones And A Threat Of A Few Tornadoes.

Due To Uncertainty Imposed By At Least Modest Model Differences Regarding The Track Of The Shortwave Trough...Likelihood Of Areas Of Ongoing Widespread Rain As Well As Weak Instability In The Warm Sector...Will Only Include 15% Severe Probabilities This Update.

Lower Ms Valley Region...

A Conditional Threat For A Few Strong Storms Will Exist In This Area
During The Afternoon With Nam Being The Most Aggressive Solution For A Potential Severe Threat. In Wake Of Convection Along The Conveyor Belt...Some Potential May Exist For The Boundary Layer To
Destabilize In A Narrow Corridor Within Pre-Frontal Warm Sector.

Instability Will Remain Weak...But Frontogenetic Forcing May Support
A Narrow Band Of Storms Developing Across The Lower Ms Valley Into Wrn Parts Of The Tn Valley With A Marginal Threat For Isolated
Strong Wind Gusts.


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