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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Feb 11

Gulf Coast...

Large Scale Upper Pattern Is Reasonably Consistent Into The Day3
Period Among The Gfs/Ecmwf/Nam...Especially Regarding The Broad
Corridor Of Strong Mid-High Level Flow From Nrn Mexico Across Tx
Into The Middle Atlantic.

Both The Gfs/Ecmwf Suppress The Sfc Front A Bit Farther South Toward The Gulf Coast Compared To The More Inland Nam And This Convective Forecast Will Be Based On The More Sly Frontal Position.

Given The Neutral-Weak Height Falls Expected Across The Gulf States It Appears Weak Low Level Warm Advection Will Be The Primary Forcing Mechanism For Post-Frontal Elevated Convection Just North Of The Front From Tx Into The Cntrl Gulf States.

It/S Not Entirely Clear Whether The Wind Shift Will Actually Sag Off The Coast And Given The Proximity To Much Richer Gulf Moisture/ Instability There Is Some Concern That Episodic Robust Tstm Activity Could Develop Through The Period Modulated By Veered 850mb Flow.

For This Reason Have Opted To Introduce 5 Percent Severe Probs To Account For Isolated Wind Gust Or Perhaps Even A Tornado With Near-Sfc Based Supercell Convection.


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