Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Dec 10

Synopsis...

Any Phasing Of A Pair Of Short Wave Impulses Digging Into Larger
Scale Upper Troughing Encompassing Much Of North America Appears Likely To Be Short-Lived.

The Spread Among The Models And Model Ensembles Continues To Increase During This Period Concerning Short Wave Developments. But Guidance Generally Suggests That The Large-Scale Trough Will Broaden...As The Northern Impulse Lifts Northeast Of The Great Lakes Region Through Eastern Canada.

The Primary Associated Surface Cyclone May Continue To Deepen As It Migrates From The Lower Great Lakes Region Through The Canadian Maritimes. And Deep Layer West Southwesterly Mean Flow May Continue To Strengthen Across The Cold Front... Approaching The Appalachians And Lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast Early In The Period... Eastward Through The Atlantic Seaboard.

However...The Surface Front Is Expected To Outpace Cooling Aloft ...And Secondary Frontal Wave Development Is Forecast To Remain Weak...As The Southern Short Wave Impulse Lifts Northeast Of The Southern Plains And Becomes Increasingly Sheared As It Progresses Across The Ohio Valley Into The Northeast.

Potential For Thunderstorm Activity May Persist Ahead Of The Eastward Advancing Cold Front Across A Large Portion Of The Eastern U.S. On Monday.

However..Probabilities Appear Generally Low...And Mostly Near The Minimum 10 Percent Threshold For A Categorical Thunderstorm Line...As Weak Lapse Rates Limit Cape... And Large-Scale Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion Generally Weakens.

Parts Of The Nrn Gulf States Into The Cumberland Plateau...

It Does Not Appear Out Of The Question That Forcing Associated With
The Southern Impulse Could Contribute To Strong Enough Lift In A
Pre-Frontal Corridor Spreading Across The Region During The Late
Morning/Afternoon To Support Convective Development. And Forecast
Soundings Suggest That...While Weak...Cape May Extend Through The Favorable Mixed Phase Layer For Charge Separation And Lightning.

Embedded Within A 40-50+ Kt West Southwesterly Deep Layer Mean
Flow...Activity Could Become Vigorous Enough To Enhance The Downward Transfer Of Higher Momentum To The Surface With Potentially Damaging Wind Gusts.


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