Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Aug 5

The Weather Pattern Will Remain Similar To The Previous Day With
Nwly Flow Aloft From The Nrn Rockies Sewd To The Mid Atlantic.

Heights Are Expected To Be A Bit More Depressed With Less Ridging
Over The Plains As Multiple Low Amplitude Features Ripple Sewd
Within The Belt Of Stronger Flow Aloft. A Weak Lee Trough Will Again
Extend From Ern Mt Swd Across The High Plains...With A Weak Low
Centered Over Wrn Ks By Afternoon. Strong Heating In This Region
Will Lead To Isolated Severe Hail And Wind...With Another Nocturnal
Mcs Possible Across Ks...Neb...And Mo.

Nrn And Cntrl High Plains Sewd Into Mo...

Morning Convection May Be Ongoing Due To A Swly Low Level Jet From The Upper Ms Valley Swd Into Mo And Ar. Lapse Rates Should Generally Be Poor With This Leading Activity...With Little Severe Threat.

By Mid Afternoon...Storms Are Expected To Form From The Black Hills
Into Wrn Neb...And These Will Likely Be Supercells Given Ample Deep
Layer Shear And Favorable Lapse Rates And Instability.

Very Large Hail And Damaging Winds Will Be Possible.

Storms Farther S Into Co And Wrn Ks Will Probably Be More Outflow Dominated Due To Weaker Flow Regime.

Models Generally Agree That Cells Will Eventually Merge Into An Mcs With A Wind Threat...And Will Continue Sewd Overnight Across Neb And Ks And Into Nwrn Mo By Tue Morning. This Seems A Reasonable Solution Given The Current Pattern.


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