Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Aug 26

Subtle Variances Will Be Noted In The Large Scale Pattern During The
Early Part Of Next Week As Short-Waves Traverse The Nrn Tier Of The
Country/Srn Canada Into New England.

Primary Large Scale Feature...Dominant Upper Anticyclone...Will Remain Centered Over The Cntrl U.S...Perhaps Drifting Wwd Into Ks By Early Tuesday.

Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes...

Weak Low Level Warm Advection Will Likely Prove Responsible For Sct Early Morning Convection Across Parts Of The Great Lakes Region Beneath Wly Llj That Should Extend Across Lower Mi Into Upstate Ny. This Activity May Reinforce A Low Level Boundary That Should Extend Wwd Across Wi/Srn Mn Into Ern Sd Where Weak Sfc Cyclone May Evolve By Late Afternoon. In The Absence Of Meaningful Large Scale Ascent The Aforementioned Boundary May Not Prove Particularly Active...Convective-Wise Much Of The Period.

However...Strong Sfc Heating Across The Plains/Upper Ms Valley Should Force Sfc Parcels To Near Convective Temperatures As Weak Short-Wave Trough Begins To Flatten Ridge Over The Ern Dakotas. Latest Thinking Is Tstms Could Evolve Ahead Of Sfc Low Near/North Of Weak Sfc Boundary Aided In Part By Short-Wave Trough.

For Now Will Introduce 5 Percent Severe Probs To Account For Wind/ Hail Threat But There Is Some Indication That Increasing Llj Over Swrn Mn During The Evening Hours Could Aid Upscale Growth That May Be More Properly Reflected With Higher Severe Probs In Later Outlooks.


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