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Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Aug 12

Gradual Trough Amplification Is Expected Over The Great Lakes Region And Adjacent Oh Valley/Northeast States On Monday...While An Upper Ridge Persists Across The Rockies With Rising Heights Over The Pacific Northwest In The Wake Of A Northward-Migrating Upper Low.

Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...

As Height Falls Occur Tied To The Amplifying/Southeastward-Shifting
Upper Trough Over Northern Ontario/Northwest Quebec...Increasingly
Strong Cyclonic Upper Flow Is Expected Over The Midwest/Great Lakes.

Moist Advection From The West-Southwest Will Occur Immediately Ahead Of A Slow Southeastward-Moving Cold Front...With A Corridor Of At Least Weak Instability Ahead Of The Front...Especially Across
Portions Of Il/Indiana Into Oh/Southern Lower Mi.

Aided By The Right-Entrance Region Of An Increasingly Strong Upper Jet...Tstms Should Increase/Intensify Monday Afternoon.

Modestly Strong/Near-Unidirectional Westerly Flow Will Allow For
Multicells/Line Segments Capable Of Wind Damage Aside From Some Marginally Severe Hail. Storms Should Spread East-Southeastward Across Much Of The Oh Valley And Perhaps Into Other Parts Of The Northeast States Monday Night...Although With A Diminished Intensity By Mid-Evening.

South-Central Plains To Ozarks/Mid-South...

Current Thinking Is That Clusters Of Tstms/Perhaps A Weakening Mcs May Be Ongoing Monday Morning Across Portions Of The South-Central Plains To Lower Mo Valley/Ozarks.

On The Fringes Of This Early Day Activity...Mesoscale Influences May Help Focus Development/Reintensification Of Storms Into A Very
Moist/Potentially Unstable Airmass Monday Afternoon...Potentially
Including A Corridor From Eastern Ok/Ozarks To The Mid-South/Ms
Valley. Sporadic Wind Damage Would Be The Primary Hazard Within This Scenario.

North-Central High Plains...

Although Overall Forcing/Vertical Shear Will Be Modest Under The
Influence Of The Nearby Rockies Upper Ridge...Isolated/Widely
Scattered Tstms Should Develop In Vicinity Of A High Plains Lee
Trough/Upslope Trajectories. Weak Shear/Moderate Instability May
Allow For Some Stronger Tstms Capable Of Severe Hail And Possibly
Some Severe Wind Monday Afternoon/Evening.

Northern Intermountain Region...

As Compared To Prior Days...Weaker Overall Forcing Is Expected
Across The Region Into Monday...Although Orographic Lift/Residually
Moist Airmass Will Likely Lead To At Least Isolated Tstm Development Across The Region Monday Afternoon/Early Evening. A Few Of These Storms Could Produce Marginally Severe Hail Or Wind.


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