Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Apr 29

Nrn Stream Upper Trough Is Forecast To Strengthen/Amplify From The Rockies East Across The Nrn Plains While A Slow Moving Southeast U.S. Disturbance Weakens Further.

Marginal Instability And Shear Across The Southeast Should Preclude Severe Storm Potential In This Region.

Some Model Guidance Suggests The Potential For Strong Diurnal Destabilization Ahead Of The Cold Front Accompanying The Upper Trough Across The Nrn Plains And Into The Midwest/Mo River Valley Area.

There May Be A Chance For Convection To Develop Near/Ahead Of The Cold Front Moving Into These Areas On Monday Afternoon. However...The Relatively Wide Disparity In Frontal Timing And Degree Of Destabilization Amongst The Nam/Gfs And Ensembles Is Such That It Appears Too Early To Introduce Even Low Severe Probabilities At This Forecast Range.


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