Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Apr 22

Amplified Longwave Pattern Will Remain Over The Conus Through
Monday...With An Amplifying/Positive Tilt Upper Trough Centered Over
The North-Central Conus. Convective Potential Will Generally Be Tied
To A Southeastward Moving Cold Front Across The Central Conus.

South-Central Plains To Ozarks/Lower Mo Valley...

As Mentioned...Convective Potential Will Generally Be Tied To A
Central Conus Upper Trough/Southeastward Advancing Cold Front.

Modified Moisture Will Return Northward Into The Region Through The First Part Of Monday...But Nonetheless...Overall Moisture Content Is Expected To Remain Relatively Modest With Surface Dewpoints Limited To The 50s/Perhaps Lower 60s F Across The South-Central Plains Ahead Of The Front.

Initially...Elevated/Modest Intensity Tstms Will Likely Occur Across The Lower Mo Valley/Midwest Vicinity Near The Cold Front. Into The Afternoon...Subsequent Surface Based Tstm Development Could Occur By Mid/Late Afternoon Farther Southwest Near A Surface Triple
Point...Which May Be Located Across Western Ok Or Immediately
Adjacent Portions Of Southern Ks/Tx Panhandle.

Of Higher Confidence Will Be For Tstms...Some Severe...To Increase Near/Perhaps Immediately Behind The Southeastward Advancing Cold Front Into Monday Evening.

Overall...At Least Some Potential For Severe Hail Will Exist
Especially Monday Afternoon/Evening Given Sufficient Instability /Favorable Vertical Shear.

Furthermore...Current Thinking Is That A Slight Risk Could Very Well Be Necessary In Subsequent Outlooks As Details Become Clearer Into The Day 2 Or Day 1 Time Frame.

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