Severe Weather Threat Day 3 Mon Apr 15

Ern Ok To Srn Il...

In The Wake Of Upper Ms Valley Speed Max/Short Wave Trough Weak
Height Rises Are Expected Across The Srn Plains Into The Mid Ms
Valley Region.

Early Morning Frontal Surge Across Ok Is Expected To Stall By Mid Day Partly Due To Strong Heating Across North Tx/Sern Ok. In The Absence Of Identifiable Large Scale Ascent...Diabatic Heating Near The Stalled Frontal Zone Should Be The Main Concern For Potential Thunderstorm Development During The Afternoon Hours Monday.

Latest Forecast Soundings Along The Trailing Front Suggest
Inhibition Weakens Considerably As Sfc Temperatures Warm Into The
Mid-Upper 80s. While The Nam Does Not Generate Qpf...Gfs Does
Develop Sct Precipitation Along The Front Across Ern Ok Into Ncntrl
Tx. Given That 40kt Of Sfc-6km Deep Layer Shear Will Be Present ...Sbcape Aoa 2000 J/Kg Would Be More Than Adequate To Warrant Severe Probs Along This Boundary And A Conditional Slgt Risk Has Been Introduced To Account For This Threat Across Mainly Ern Ok.

Farther Northeast...Veered Llj Will Translate Into Ern Mo/Il By Late
Afternoon Then Focus Across Nern Ok By 16/12z. Tstms Could Develop Along A Ribbon Of Low Level Warm Advection From Sern Ks/Nern Ok Across Srn Mo Into Srn Il Anytime During The Period.
However...Greater Probabilities For Severe Deep Convection May Be
Tied To Aforementioned Zones Of Enhanced Low Level Warm Advection Modulated By Llj. With Trajectories Across The Wrn Gulf Basin Expected To Become More Favorable For Transport Of Quality Moisture Nwd Into This Region There Is Increasing Confidence That Modest Elevated Instability Will Exist Just North Of The Stalled Front To Support Severe Hail And Perhaps Damaging Winds With Near Sfc-Based Activity.


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